Wednesday, 20 April 2011

Foreign Military Advisers in Libya, what next?

Now reports have confirmed the first phase of presence of foreign troops in Libya in the name of 'military advisers.'
First, British military experts are on their way to the city of Benghazi to help rebel forces. Britain says the officers will not be involved in fighting, but the move raises the question of whether the international mission in Libya is expanding.

And now, France and Italy on April 20 promised more support for Libya's opposition, saying they would join Britain in sending military advisers to help the rebels break a battlefield stalemate.

The question is, whether this would lead to escalation of fight in Libya or whether this would lead to some settlement, breaking the current stalemate?

Thursday, 7 April 2011

Libya, making of another Iraq or Afghanistan, but with a difference

By someone who monitored US-led Afghan war

If someone wants to understand the real intentions of western powers in Libyan game, he or she will have to study a little 1988-89 the role of Afghan Mujahideen fighting Soviet forces.

The then Afghan mujahideen comprising local Afghans and non Afghan enthusiasts from around the world, mainly Arabs, were given US arms to fight Soviet forces, which eventually resulted in the collapse of Soviet Union, and emerging 15 independent states. This was the time when Osama Bin Laden joined Afghan war and lured thousands of Arabs into it.

Later, Cristina Roca, a US special envoy, was assigned the job to take back those weapons from Afghan Mujahideen, specially Stinger Missiles, but her mission failed to achieve targets.

 Following the collapse of Soviet Union, US and Western allies abandoned Afghanistan, after which remaining Afghan Mujahideen, again comprising local Afghans and non Afghan enthusiasts from around the world, mainly Arabs, grouped themselves together and Afghanistan was divided virtually between several war lords.

In 2001, the Afghanistan based Al-Qaeda and their hosts Taliban were blamed for the destruction of twin towers and havoc created elsewhere in the US.

This caused the US to move quickly, align with other western nations, and since 2001 up to date, they are in Afghanistan.

Today, Libyan rebels are demanding arms to fight Ghadaffi forces. The only difference is they have oil to sale with the help of Qatar, and from that money, they can buy arms without causing financial burden on western exchequer, officially or unofficially, and fight Ghadaffi forces.

And later of course, the eastern Libya had  already been declared as a safe haven for Al-Qaeda elements by US diplomats, cables of which released by wiki leaks just a few weeks back.

Now the picture is visible. restrict Ghadaffi regime to west of Libya,secure oil rich areas including that of coastal belt, and use Libyan rebels (today's Libyan Mujahideen) to fight Ghadaffi. And afterwards, skirmishes between allied forces and Libyan Mujahideen, which would eventually result in the long-time presence of international forces in the region.

May be I am wrong, but my perception is based on events which I myself overlooked very closely for several years. US-led war against Soviet Union is severely criticized today in many countries, and what I foresee, the current military strikes too would never be welcomed, which were initialized in the name of enforcing No Fly Zone and protecting Civilians in Libya.

If you disagree, or agree, just press the comment button below, and share with me what ever you have in your mind.